The Monday, April 22 DraftKings fantasy baseball slate features seven games. Get a head start on the competition by checking out the best MLB DFS stud and value picks for each position.
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PITCHER
Stud
Dylan Cease, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($8,700) — Picking starting pitchers at Coors Field is playing with fire. If that’s the case, then Cease is playing with matches. Coors is great, but the Rockies have to put the ball in play. That’s not something they are likely to do in this matchup. Colorado strikes out 27.8% of the time vs. right-handed pitching (.312 wOBA and 80 wRC+). Cease is striking out 30% of the batters he faces. When batters do make contact, it’s staying in the yard (0.4 HR/9). Cease’s last start was in Milwaukee’s premium hitter’s park against one of the hottest offenses in baseball. He allowed one earned run and struck out seven in six innings.
Value
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox ($7,400) — MLB DFS value picks require contortion. Standards and expectations must be bent, twisted and softened. Paddack’s stats look bad. They are bad. Any pitcher would look bad given his first three matchups — Brewers, Dodgers and Orioles. The White Sox are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Chicago has a .257 wOBA, .099 ISO and 64 wRC+. Paddack isn’t getting hammered (32.7 Hard%). He’s just been unlucky (.392 BABIP). He won’t need luck against the White Sox.
INFIELD
Stud
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($5,500) — There will be no apologies for writing up too many Padres picks. They are the best MLB DFS picks on Monday. Machado’s season averages aren’t great, but a slow start is suppressing the stats. Since April 6, Machado has a hit in all but one game. In those 14 games, he has 23 HardHits (60.5%). This should be a good series for Machado.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,600) — Matching matchups on Monday is mayhem. There’s Coors, then the slate falls off a cliff. There’s great pitching everywhere. The TLDR version is “Pick padres, don’t get cute.” Arenado is slightly cute but his matchup with Brandon Pfaadt ($8,000) isn’t terrible. Pfaadt allowed 2.06 HR/9 last season and is allowing 1.52 HR/9 in 2024. A deep look at Arenado’s analytics is eye-opening. He has four HardHits in the last two games and 15 in the last 12 games.
Value
Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($4,500) — It’s a Coors slate. Get cute if you want. That includes taking Rockies in a tough matchup. There are several Padres off to a great start this season. They’re a priority on Monday. Kim’s stats do not jump off the page, but the Statcast data suggests a strong series for Kim. Over the last two weeks, Kim’s average Launch Angle is 21.2°. He’s put the ball in play in 37 of his 55 plate appearances (67%). There’s a good chance that he runs into a home run or extra-base hit on Monday. He can also steal bases — currently tied for 16th most stolen bases.
Eugy Rosario, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($3,100) — It’s Coors. It’s a lefty. It’s a lefty — Austin Gomber ($5,000) — that doesn’t strike batters out and is allowing 1.8 HR/9. It doesn’t take a PhD to research this slate. However, pretending to have one is dangerous on Monday. Don’t get cute. Don’t suffer from galaxy brain. This article is proliferated with Padres. They’re the pick and the rest of the slate is sick. Rosario has a .525 wOBA, .500 ISO and 236 wRC+ in 22 at-bats against left-handed pitching. Should those stats be ignored because the article has reached its Coors Field quota?
OUTFIELD
Stud
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($6,000) — Coors or no Coors, Tatis is top of the charts. In 2021, the then 22-year-old hit 42 home runs but struck out 28% of the time. He’s cut his K-rate in half. That’s terrifying. He registered 329 Batted Ball Events in 546 plate appearances in 2021 (60%). His plate discipline has resulted in 72 Batted Ball Events in 100 plate appearances this season (72%). That’s a significant increase. Factor in that half of those events are HardHits. This is terrifying.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles, $6,300 — A trip to Cincinnati should have been a big weekend for Trout. He collected one hit and the Angels got swept. This is not a slump. Trout had five HardHits with an average Launch Angle above 30°. On the season, he has a 41.3% HardHit% with an average Launch Angle of 26.1°. He’s in the top 10 in Barrels (11). Last but not least, Trout is in one of the favorable matchups on the slate. Albert Suarez ($4,000) pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his lone start of the season, but the traditional stat line is deceiving. His HardHit% was 43.8%, but his BABIP was .118.
Value
Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies ($4,200) — Suggesting nothing but Padres studs and MLB DFS value picks seems like a copout. It’s lazy research and writing. It’s not. Look at this slate. The ERAs are microscopic. Almost all of the parks are pitcher’s parks. Merrill’s splits are weak but it’s Coors. Austin Gomber will only toss so many innings. The Rockies bullpen has the fifth-worst xFIP (4.51).
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,100) — There are very few weak pitchers taking the mound on Monday. Pitcher Pfaadt is not a pushover. He can pile up punch outs, but he surrenders home runs (4) and runs (5.32 ERA). The left-handed batter can’t hit lefties, but he can hit right-handed pitching — .401 wOBA and 154 wRC+.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
